| Date | Ticker | Direction | Thesis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | LONG | Peter Navarro (White House Trade Advisor) explicitly refuted reports that the administration would lower tariffs, stating there are "no plans" to scale them back and that steel/aluminum are "sacred." The market had begun pricing in a potential reduction in tariffs (which would lower prices and hurt domestic producers). The confirmation that high tariffs (up to 50%) remain in place protects the pricing power and market share of domestic US steel and aluminum producers against foreign competition. Long domestic metal producers who retain protectionist advantages. Retaliatory tariffs from trading partners or demand destruction due to high prices. | ||
| Feb 11, 2026 | LONG | The economy added 130k jobs, which is considered "out of sample" (stronger) than the Fed's expectations for a cooling market. A strong labor print removes the urgency for the Fed to act. The data supports a "higher for longer" narrative, with Liesman predicting zero rate cuts for the remainder of the year. Expect rates to stay elevated; rate cut expectations are "dying." Sudden deterioration in labor data in subsequent months. |